Once again, the market proved that it doesn’t have to be smooth to be profitable. In spite of continued uncertainty and the resulting volatility (on-going Iran conflict, persistent inflation, a new Fed Chairman, concerns over elevated valuations, etc.), stocks basically hit it out of the park again.
We see Q1 market conditions as yet another reminder that periods of volatility are a natural and recurring investment phenomenon, and the best path forward is to ignore the noise and stay the course.
As we bid farewell to 2025, we reflect on a year of contrasts, turbulence and cross currents. It was a year of extremes, even by today’s standards … April’s sweeping tariff announcements sent markets tumbling (to the tune of $5 trillion in two days for the S&P), only to recover to previous levels by late June (AND close out the year with strong gains).
It was another strong quarter for U.S. equities, with the major indices hitting record highs. In spite of mixed economic data, a softening job market and a looming government shutdown, the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 ended the quarter up 5.2%, 11.2%, 7.8% and 12% respectively.
Kicking off with President Trump’s April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, Q2 began with equity markets plummeting, as fears of spiking inflation and the specter of a potential trade war sent stocks free falling by more than 19% from their February high.
Washington has a new administration since our last Executive Summary, along with a plethora of rapid and economically significant executive orders and policy changes – most notably the pending rollout of tariffs and the overhaul of government agencies for enhanced efficiency and federal spending cuts.