Washington has a new administration since our last Executive Summary, along with a plethora of rapid and economically significant executive orders and policy changes – most notably the pending rollout of tariffs and the overhaul of government agencies for enhanced efficiency and federal spending cuts.
The U.S. stock market powered higher in 2024, continuing a pretty remarkable bull run. Q4 started out slow before rallying with a post-election bang following a Trump win, and while markets hit a bit of a speed bump when the Fed indicated reduced expectations for rate cuts, the quarter ended in positive territory, wrapping up another year for the record books.
For a while there, it looked like the 2024 market rally might be in trouble during the third quarter, with mid-quarter job reports reflecting a cooling labor market and stocks taking a hit. But in September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a larger-than expected 50 bps, and at the end of the roller coaster ride, stocks finished up.
We are closely monitoring Hurricane Milton, as we complete our preparations for the storm. For the safety and well-being of our staff, we will have limited coverage in the Clearwater office tomorrow, October 8, 2024.
The quarter got off to a rough start in April, as stubbornly high inflation led to revised expectations for interest rate cuts, sending stocks falling and breaking a five-month winning streak. But stocks bounced right back in May, as improving inflation data and strong corporate earnings boosted the market.
Q1 2024 was a welcome change. It has been a long time since we began a new year with as much collective optimism as 2024. We would need to go pre-COVID to find such a rosy global economic outlook.